National Housing Market Update: July 2026, What Inflation Means for Buyers and Sellers
Inflation is back in the headlines, and it's directly shaping what mortgage rates are doing across the country. Whether you're buying your first home, relocating, or considering an investment property, understanding what's actually driving the national market helps you separate real signal from noise and see how it applies to a local market like Myrtle Beach and the Grand Strand.
Brian Staub and Beach Properties Group have consistently ranked among the top agents and teams in the Myrtle Beach area based on sales volume and homes sold. With more than 20 years of experience in the local market, along with Brian's 17 years as a home improvement contractor and new construction agent, buyers and sellers get guidance that connects national trends to real, local decisions.
Quick Answer
Inflation is currently running at 4.2%, driven largely by gas and fuel oil prices, keeping mortgage rates pinned around 6.5% with little near-term relief expected. Existing home sales rose 3.2% in May, national inventory hit its highest level since around 2019, and first-time home buyers now make up 35% of the market: the highest share in recent years.
Are Mortgage Rates Going to Come Down in 2026?
Based on the most recent CPI report, inflation is running at 4.2%: the highest level in a couple of years, driven largely by gasoline prices (up 40% year-over-year) and fuel oil (up nearly 60%). The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, sits at 3.3%, still well above the Fed's 2% target. With inflation elevated and the jobs market stable but not accelerating, mortgage rates are expected to stay pinned around 6.5% over the next several months rather than decline. If you've been waiting for a rate drop before making a move, the near-term data doesn't support that bet.
Curious how this affects your specific numbers? Book a buyer strategy call and we'll walk through financing scenarios together.
Why Aren't Mortgage Rates Dropping If the Fed Hasn't Raised Rates?
Mortgage rates track more closely with the 10-year Treasury yield and inflation expectations than with the Fed's short-term rate decisions. Persistent inflation pressures the Fed away from cutting rates, and rising inflation expectations push long-term rates like mortgages higher, independent of what the Fed's benchmark rate does. The conversation has shifted from "when will the Fed cut rates" to "can the Fed avoid raising them further": a meaningfully different environment than a year ago.
What's Happening With Existing Home Sales Nationally?
Existing home sales rose 3.2% in May to an annualized 4.1 million, reversing a stretch of flat-to-declining activity. The national median existing home price climbed 1.3% to $429,000, and inventory sits at 4.5 months: the highest level of supply since roughly 2019. More listings combined with rising sales suggests a market that's adjusting to higher-for-longer rates rather than staying frozen.
Who Is Actually Buying Homes Right Now?
One of the more notable shifts: first-time home buyers now make up 35% of the existing home purchase market, the highest share in recent memory and approaching what's historically considered a "normal" level. The average first-time buyer is now 38 years or older, reflecting a generation that has been saving longer before entering the market and, in some cases, diversifying out of a volatile stock market and into real estate as a more stable long-term asset.
For buyers weighing whether to enter the market now, the case isn't about waiting for a lower rate. It's about locking in a fixed monthly payment before prices climb further, then building equity through the "forced savings" of homeownership over time. If you'd like to see what fits your budget locally, you can explore Myrtle Beach homes that fit your budget while you weigh timing.
What Should Sellers Know About the Current Market?
Buyers have more negotiating leverage than they did a few years ago. One clear indicator: the rate of buyers waiving inspections continues to decline nationally: a sign that buyers no longer feel pressure to compete as aggressively as they did in a tighter market. Adding to that shift, the price gap between new construction and existing homes has nearly disappeared (a dynamic not seen since the early 1980s), meaning sellers of existing homes are competing more directly with builders than usual.
The practical takeaway for sellers: presentation matters more now. Buyers are less willing to overlook cosmetic issues when there's more inventory to choose from, so first impressions, particularly kitchens and curb appeal, carry more weight in getting to a contract.
Want a read on how these national trends are actually showing up in local pricing and demand? Schedule a market strategy call for a market-specific breakdown, or search current Grand Strand listings to see what's available right now.
Why Local Experience Matters
National numbers set the backdrop, but they don't tell you what's happening on a specific street in Carolina Forest, a condo building on the Golden Mile, or a new construction community near the Marsh. Brian Staub has helped buyers and sellers throughout Myrtle Beach and the Grand Strand for more than 20 years. Combined with his 17 years of experience as a contractor and new construction agent, he helps clients translate national trends like these into decisions that actually fit their situation.
Beach Properties Group has consistently been one of the area's top-producing real estate teams based on sales volume and closed transactions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will mortgage rates drop in 2026?
Current data suggests mortgage rates are likely to hold around 6.5% over the next several months rather than decline, due to inflation running at 4.2% and a stable but non-accelerating jobs market.
Are home prices still rising nationally?
Yes. The national median existing home price rose 1.3% to $429,000 as of the most recent report, even as inventory has increased to its highest level since around 2019.
What percentage of buyers are first-time home buyers?
First-time home buyers currently make up 35% of the existing home purchase market, the highest share in recent years.
Is it a buyer's market or seller's market nationally?
Indicators are shifting toward buyers having more leverage: inspection waivers are declining and inventory is climbing, though the market isn't uniformly favoring either side across every region.
Final Thoughts
National headlines about inflation and mortgage rates matter, but they're only useful once you connect them to a real decision: your timeline, your budget, your local market. Understanding the "why" behind rates and inventory nationally helps you read the local numbers with more confidence.
If you're weighing a move in Myrtle Beach or anywhere along the Grand Strand, having an experienced local Realtor who understands both the national picture and the local market makes the difference. Book a strategy call or start browsing current listings to see what's out there today.
Brian Staub is a real estate agent in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina helping people buy and sell with clarity and confidence.
Brian Staub
Beach Properties Group
Keller Williams
601 21st Ave N Myrtle Beach, SC 29577
(843) 385-6630
https://beachpropertiesgroup.com/
